1. Let's say you played 100 hours of blackjack this year and you just had your first 10-hand losing streak. Well you played at least 5000 hands, and your chance of losing at least 10 hands in a row at some point in that stretch was around 99%.
2. For your example, if your chance of winning an individual hand is $0.49.0.50,0.51$, your chance of losing $12$ in a row is about $0.000310,0.000244,0.000191$. If you lose $12$ in a row, you lose $4095$, so the expectation of a series is $-0.268,0,0.215$ You can't calculate the chance of winning a hand until you specify the strategy you will follow.

The goal of this strategy is to win a huge amount of money before you reach your bonus amount, cancel the bonus and walk away with your winnings. So let’s do the same example as Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row above. You deposit €100 and get another €100 to play Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row with.

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What are the odds of losing 14 hands in a row playing perfect basic strategy? (Standing soft 17 with 6 decks)

The probability of losing 14 in a row is about p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.

Also what is the calculation to work out how likely it is to lose x amount of hands in a row?

The probability of losing x in a row is about p = (0.4787)^x. So the odds are about [(1-p)/p] -to-1.
Since I am only giving p to four decimal place accuracy, you shouldn't express the answer with more than 4 significant digits. For example, the odds of losing 30 in a row are about 3964000000-to-1.

The probability of losing 14 in a row is p = (0.4787)^14 = 0.00003318. So the odds are about 30140-to-1.

nice question OP
now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too
that also makes it way easier to see that event
if one plays 100 hands i show the chance that somewhere in those 100 hands the chance to lose at least 14 in a row = abouts
1 in 657
1000 hands played = 1 in 59
so my non-professional opinion is more hands played increases the chance of seeing such a streak at least 1 time
when a Push breaks the losing streak
i ran recent cvdata sim of 411,318,396 hands played (400 million rounds)
24,574 losing streaks of 14 and higher for the player (pushes did not break the streak)
the average number of rounds to play to see such a losing run
push breaks the streak = 57,747.591 (from a Markov chain calculation)
push no break the streak = 19,453.96652 (from a Markov chain calculation too)
losing streaks in BJ, in my opinion,
are the highest from the games of Craps, Roulette and Baccarat (with the best HE bets)
because using BS does not take into consideration playing the hand to give the highest hand win percentage
(that would be for tournament style BJ play)

now, this is with a Push breaking the streak
i think a player would still be crushed losing 14 hands in a row with a few pushes thrown in too

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties don't break the streak.

I get the probability of losing 14 in a row equal to about 8330-to-1 (starting from any fixed hand), when ties are allowed to occur in the streak.

that looks good to me
so over
100 rounds played the probability to see at least 1 such run of 14 losses increases to abouts 1 in 224
1000 rounds = 1 in 20 (lucky 1)
i would say
not one BJ player would think that should ever happen
i am just guessing on that,
but it could and does happen and should be expected to happen

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

not that risky if you play to win just 1 or 2 times and stop forever
the risk lies in playing it more than 1 time and keeping on playing
the more rounds you play the chances keep increasing that you will see such a losing streak
good luck in your fun

Thanks guys, I've found a site which has a 10p minimum table and 10,000 maximum so I could double up 16 times or so before losing?
I guess it's risky but I would have to be so unlucky playing basic strategy to lose that many times in a row :?(

If it's online then there's probably a 95% it will happen.3 things and 2 cents

Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row 3

*you can spot this kind of post with its subject [in caps no less] 10 miles away and it's always one of two things: the poster has taken a terrible beating several times in a row and thinks it is near impossible
*or is thinking about doing the martingale
*the OP is never interested in learning the math himself, nice try Teliot

Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row One

so the OP is the latter type ; my 2 cents is, 'forget it'. The martingale has been around for centuries. You can skip the math [which I am thinking is your wont anyway] and just stare that fact in the face. Either that or locate the article about the guy who cleaned out the casinos and the martingale is how he did it.

Probability Of Losing 10 Blackjack Hands In A Row Chart